Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 0.016917 0.019143 0.021554 0.024359 0.027535 0.031020 0.035135
2025-09-21 0.013085 0.016077 0.019593 0.024032 0.029492 0.035997 0.044344
2025-09-28 0.010740 0.013958 0.017957 0.023296 0.030248 0.039008 0.050913
2025-10-05 0.009736 0.013251 0.017822 0.024214 0.032935 0.044450 0.060855
2025-10-12 0.008851 0.012538 0.017527 0.024785 0.035101 0.049282 0.070335
2025-10-19 0.008161 0.011981 0.017337 0.025412 0.037318 0.054287 0.080429
2025-10-26 0.007368 0.011172 0.016683 0.025266 0.038347 0.057619 0.088328
2025-11-02 0.006738 0.010530 0.016188 0.025270 0.039545 0.061230 0.096886
2025-11-09 0.006089 0.009785 0.015455 0.024817 0.039962 0.063635 0.103717
2025-11-16 0.005694 0.009397 0.015229 0.025118 0.041559 0.067965 0.113939
2025-11-23 0.005241 0.008868 0.014726 0.024910 0.042283 0.070914 0.122091
2025-11-30 0.004996 0.008658 0.014715 0.025505 0.044375 0.076251 0.134693
2025-12-07 0.004509 0.008003 0.013918 0.024710 0.044053 0.077535 0.140484
2025-12-14 0.004155 0.007546 0.013422 0.024394 0.044537 0.080249 0.149060
2025-12-21 0.003771 0.007001 0.012722 0.023647 0.044165 0.081382 0.154801
2025-12-28 0.003673 0.006968 0.012934 0.024578 0.046949 0.088452 0.172252
2026-01-04 0.003531 0.006842 0.012960 0.025158 0.049108 0.094518 0.188285
2026-01-11 0.003407 0.006737 0.013016 0.025795 0.051422 0.101046 0.205773
2026-01-18 0.003197 0.006444 0.012687 0.025647 0.052167 0.104571 0.217504
2026-01-25 0.003021 0.006206 0.012446 0.025650 0.053210 0.108754 0.230923
2026-02-01 0.002809 0.005877 0.011998 0.025191 0.053258 0.110914 0.240255
2026-02-08 0.002694 0.005738 0.011922 0.025497 0.054927 0.116535 0.257471
2026-02-15 0.002536 0.005496 0.011614 0.025285 0.055468 0.119817 0.269832